Opposite attraction: 2010

Wednesday, 1 December 2010

Making Money Now

Submitted by Bo Peng

Making The Last Use Of Reserve Currency Status

I suspect many in the mainstream academia haven't realized what QE2 is.
It is the last use of the dollar's reserve currency status, intended or
otherwise.

In a fiat currency system, inflation should be the
only risk, because fighting deflation should be trivial -- just print
money. This is a fundamental advantage of a fiat system over the old
gold standard. Unfortunately for the US, the dollar's reserve status
means the geopolitical border is not the dam holding the water as in
other countries. As Fed pours in more water, it leaks right out to
lowlands (good investment destinations) all over the world. Given the
current economic prospects in the world, the result is that QE2 cannot
stoke inflation in the US, but causes very unwelcome interference in
exactly the other places in the world where inflation is a big concern.

It's small wonder all the growth EM economies are engaging in the low-grade currency war of capital control.
To them, this is a defensive war for survival against the invading army
of dollars. If the low-grade war proves insufficient, they would
escalate the defensive posture. They have to.

Another
consequence, intended or not, of QE2 + reserve status is that all growth
economies are under tremendous pressure of currency appreciation. Some
may be able to resist it and muddle through until an easier day; others
will have to cave in, therefore caught in the catch 22 of either raging
inflation or shrinking economy, or both. And, of all the growth
economies, China arguably has the most capacity and strongest political
will to resist appreciation. In such a scenario, if the intended target
of Fed's fury is China, as hinted not so subtly by Bernanke, "collateral damage" would once again be the main theme, as has been in all recent offensives launched by the US.

In
summary, Fed's dogged efforts in stoking inflation have caused and will
continue increasing the risk of bringing all growth EM economies to a
halt, significantly increasing policy risks in the rest of the world as
each country tries desperately to deal with the capital tsunami, and all
the while with huge doubt in whether it could reach its domestic goal
of stimulating employment and housing. In other words, Fed is screwing
the world for a slim chance of helping the US economy.

This is
emphatically NOT a moral criticism. But it does represent a significant
abandonment of the responsibilities on Fed's part as the issuer of world
reserve currency.

Let's go back a little in history. Right on
the heels of WWII victory, in 1944 US dictated Bretton Woods that
established the dollar as a proxy for gold in the free world. The
"proxy" part was only convenience, of course, as to be expected and
proven by Nixon in 1971. The arrangement made sense: the US would
provide security blanket, and the rest of free world would pay for it by
accepting and holding the green paper printed by the US. It's the same
idea as gangs collecting protection fee in NY, no cynicism intended.

Fast
forward to Berlin Wall collapse. Now the fundamental premises of the
dollar's reserve status were gone. Europeans quickly realized this
change and created the Euro; why should they continue paying for
protection when there's nothing to protect against? The US has made
numerous fantastic efforts in creating threats (by "creating" I don't
necessarily mean create; often times you just have to doze off for a
second and the enemy will help you out): perpetual terrorism, WMD in
Iraq, perpetual war in Iraq and Afghanistan/Pakistan, Iran, North Korea,
China, even Somali pirates (now it gets really pathetic). But none of
them could ever live up to the high expectations set by USSR.

After
10+ years of trying, it's become clear that this is futile. Nothing
works; none of those idiots could do it. But with the reserve currency
status comes its responsibilities. Win-win is BS-BS; there's no free lunch after all. The time has come to end Bretton Woods II.

Now Zoelick's surprise proposal of a new gold standard makes perfect sense.

With
QE2 the Fed is saying: Ah fuck it, you don't like USD as the reserve
currency? Well guess what? We don't like it, either. So let's drop it
and from now on it's every man on his own. Good luck.

Good luck everybody. We all need it.

Okay, maybe not every console imaginable – we’ve yet to see it on, say, the Sega Genesis or the Atari Lynx. But when Peggle lands on the PSP, it’ll pretty much be on every console this generation. PopCap announced today that Peggle would be coming to PSP next week, after already making an appearance on PSN last year, so if you haven’t played it yet (in which case I feel very sorry for you) or the PSP is the only console you own (again, sorry for you), then here’s you chance to pick it up.

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The game is going to cost $9.99 in North America, and there isn’t any word yet on Europe. The PSP’s price looks great when you compare it to Peggle on the DS ($20 to $30), but bad when you compare it to the same version on iPhone ($2.99).

This, frankly, is great news for the Peggle addict – did your DS die? Pull out your PSP and continue the Peggle madness until the PSP goes dead, then you can pull out your iPhone and then finally your laptop. If you have all four, you could probably play Peggle for, like 30 hours straight. Am I the only one who thinks that Peggle‘s dominance is a little on the ridiculous side?

Look for Peggle to hit next Tuesday.

eric seiger do

News - FIRST PHOTOS: Jake and Taylor's Romantic Thanksgiving Day ...

The new Us Weekly reports on their sudden five-week romance - and how Swift is already "love-struck"

House May Block Food Safety Bill Over Senate Error : Roll Call

A food safety bill that has burned up precious days of the Senate s lame-duck session appears headed back to the chamber because Democrats violated a constitutional provision requiring that tax provisions originate in the House.